Phases of Pandemic

Coronavirus Covid-19 is new. But pandemics are not new. World has seen and dealt with many pandemics. 

As per Wikipedia, there are approximately 240 recorded epidemics/pandemics in human history. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics

Since the year 2000, 67 Epidemics/pandemics have been reported. Ebola, SARS, Zika Virus, MERS and several other epidemics impacted multiple countries. In the last 20 years, approximately 700,000 people have died because of this unexpected epidemics/pandemics.

Based on the progression pattern of every major epidemic, World Health Organization (WHO) has created a pandemic progression plan with six major phases.

https://www.who.int/influenza/resources/documents/pandemic_phase_descriptions_and_actions.pdf?ua=1

As WHO, 6-phases of disease progression are:

Phase - 1) No impact of virus noticed on animals or humans.

Phase - 2) Virus is circulating in domestic or wild animals

Phase - 3) Virus has impacted some people - No human-to-human transmission recorded.

Phase - 4) Human-to-Human and Animal-to-Human transmission noticed.

Phase - 5) Sustained community level outbreak in two or more countries in one WHO region

Phase - 6) All criterion of Phase-5 and sustained community outbreak in one more WHO region.

Out of approximately 700,000 deaths caused by 67 disease outbreaks over the last 20 years, Swine Flu or H1N1 has caused maximum damage. It is estimated that Swine Flu caused the death of almost 600,000 people.

Remaining 66 epidemics and disease outbreaks caused approximately 100,000 deaths.

In the year 2009, WHO declared H1N1 Swine Flu as pandemic. After 2009, Coronaviruas Covid-19 has become the first disease outbreak to be declared as Pandemic by WHO.

The US Government’s Center for Disease Control (CDC) has carefully tracked the progression and containment of H1N1 Swine Flu. It took approximately 9 months to halt the progression of the disease and develop a treatment plan.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-pandemic-timeline.html

WHO lists 15-20 major disease outbreaks as serious emergencies. These outbreaks include: HIV/AIDS, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Cholera, Influenza, Plague, Typhus, Smallpox, Measles, Tuberculosis, Leprosy, Malaria, Yellow fever, Viral hemorrhagic fevers. Zika virus

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/en/

Along with the World Health Organization (WHO), almost all major countries maintain a register of possible threats to global health.

UK’s national register has listed disease outbreak and pandemic as the # 1 national risk for several years.

Given the past outbreaks and nature of previous pandemics, it is likely that humanity will continue to experience small outbreaks of virus-based disease every 3-4 months and global outbreak over 12-15 years. Smaller regional disease outbreaks occurring every 3-4 months, may result in death of 50 to 5000 people and bigger global pandemic may result in death of 100,000 or millions of people depending on the nature of outbreak.

Bill Gates warned about this type of crisis several years ago. It is likely that the United Nations and the world government will create comprehensive plans to deal with possible emergencies of this nature in future. 

As humanity is closely connected, everyone’s action is quickly having an impact on other people and communities. On a personal level, everyone can create operational practices for better hygiene and cleanliness. Every individual can make responsible dietary choices that will build their immunity and help the environment. 

Please share your thoughts and ideas on how individuals, society and Government can remain better prepared for future emergencies. Share actions each of us can take to create a safe and healthy world.